Browsing by Author "Graham, David A."
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ItemDecision support beyond total savings—Eligibility and potential savings for individual participants from changes in the national surveillance strategy for bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in Ireland(Elsevier, 2018-04-11) Tratalos, Jamie A.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Graham, David A.; Guelbenzu Gonzalo, Maria; More, Simon J.Surveillance and management of livestock diseases is often evaluated with reference to expected sector-wide costs. In contrast, we calculate losses or savings for individual herd owners of a change in monitoring strategy during a national cattle disease eradication programme: bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in Ireland. The alternative strategy differs in how the disease is identified; by its sample- rather than census-based approach; and by its greater cost per test. We examined the costs faced by each breeding herd if testing were conducted using serology on a sample of young stock, in contrast to the current method of tissue-tag testing of all newborn calves. Following best knowledge of the likely costs, the following input values were used: i) €2.50 per test for tissue-tag testing and €7.66 for serology, ii) serology conducted on a sample of 10 young stock per management group from either the 6–12 month or 9–18 month cohorts; iii) 3 scenarios for the number of management groups: one per herd (M∞), one per 100 cows (M100) and one per 50 cows (M50). We found that many herds would often not be able to supply a suitable sample of young stock for serology or would face higher testing costs than when using tissue tag testing. The largest number (25%) of herds would benefit from participating in the change if sampling were done in October. These could annually save between €2.1 million under M∞ and €0.8 million under M50 (€108 - €49 per herd). However, analysing herd-level data we found that 90% of all Irish breeding herds would save less than €1.42 per cow or €99 in total per annum under M∞, and €0.59 per cow or €36 in total under M50. In a sensitivity analysis, we allowed serology costs to vary between €2 and €10 per animal. Herds at the 10 t h percentile of most savings made from switching would save at most €155 (M∞ at €2 per serology test) but would not save anything under M50 at costs ≥ €10. We conclude that, under these assumptions, the expected reduction in testing costs for the majority of beneficiaries would barely outweigh the practical implications of the strategy switch or the risks to the eradication programme associated with sample based surveillance. This study does not assess the cost-effectiveness of alternatives post-eradication. ItemGenetic diversity of ruminant Pestivirus strains collected in Northern Ireland between 1999 and 2011 and the role of live ruminant imports(Springer Nature, 2016-06-27) Guelbenzu-Gonzalo, Maria P.; Cooper, Lynsey; Brown, Craig; Leinster, Sam; O’Neill, Ronan; Doyle, Liam; Graham, David A.Background: The genus pestivirus within the family Flaviviridae includes bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) types 1 and 2, border disease virus (BDV) and classical swine fever virus. The two recognised genotypes of BVDV are divided into subtypes based on phylogenetic analysis, namely a-p for BVDV-1 and a-c for BVDV-2. Methods: Three studies were conducted to investigate the phylogenetic diversity of pestiviruses present in Northern Ireland. Firstly, pestiviruses in 152 serum samples that had previously tested positive for BVDV between 1999 and 2008 were genotyped with a RT-PCR assay. Secondly, the genetic heterogeneity of pestiviruses from 91 serum samples collected between 2008 and 2011 was investigated by phylogenetic analysis of a 288 base pair portion of the 5’ untranslated region (UTR). Finally, blood samples from 839 bovine and 4,437 ovine animals imported in 2010 and 2011 were tested for pestiviral RNA. Analysis of animal movement data alongside the phylogenetic analysis of the strains was carried out to identify any links between isolates and animal movement. Results: No BVDV-2 strains were detected. All of the 152 samples in the first study were genotyped as BVDV-1. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the predominant subtype circulating was BVDV-1a (86 samples out of 91). The remaining five samples clustered close to reference strains in subtype BVDV-1b. Out of the imported animals, 18 bovine samples tested positive and 8 inconclusive (Ct ≥36), while all ovine samples were negative. Eight sequences were obtained and were defined as BVDV-1b. Analysis of movement data between herds failed to find links between herds where BVDV-1b was detected. Conclusion: Given that only BVDV-1a was detected in samples collected between 1968 and 1999, this study suggests that at least one new subtype has been introduced to Northern Ireland between 1999 and 2011 and highlights the potential for importation of cattle to introduce new strains. Keywords: Bovine viral diarrhoea virus, Phylogenetic analysis, 5’untranslated region, Importation