Browsing by Author "Greig, Alastair"
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Item Devolved fiscal powers, increased competitiveness and ‘levelling up’: a simulation approach(Taylor & Francis, 2023-11-29) Connolly, Kevin; Greig, Alastair; McGregor, Peter G.; Roy, Graeme; Swales, J. Kim; EconomicsThe UK levelling up agenda includes a commitment to devolution, but there has been little attempt to model the operation of possible accompanying regional tax powers. We use computable general equilibrium simulations to analyse the local impacts of regional tax cuts. These reduce production costs, thereby stimulating regional economic activity. But the financing of any subsequent deficit and the operation of the regional labour market determines the size, nature and dynamics of resulting economic outcomes. Further, the decision to target labour or capital costs has implications for a range of regional economic impacts.Item Measuring the Sensitivity of the Northern Ireland Protocol on the All-Ireland Agri-Food Supply Chain(2023-03-29) Greig, Alastair; Wu, Ziping; Aguiar, AngelThe agri-food sectors in Northern Ireland (NI) and Ireland (IRL) have become more integrated with more investments from IRL in the north and advances in all Ireland cooperation on animal health and welfare, and disease control. However, as both jurisdictions are considered structurally similar and both have a large dairy and beef sector, they are competing in the Great Britain (GB) market for agrifood products. When considering the island of Ireland agri-food sectors in the context of Brexit and the NI Protocol, there will be clear winners and losers under different Brexit and NI protocol scenarios. What constitutes a relatively “good” economic outcome for NI farmers may come at the expense of IRL farmers, while relatively “good” economic outcomes for IRL farmers may amplify negative outcomes for NI farmers. This paper analyses the impacts of the NI Protocol in terms of what it means for the agri-food sectors in IRL, NI, but also for the island of Ireland (ISL) as a whole.Item The impacts of a reduction in British meat and dairy consumption on Northern Ireland’s agri-food sector(SAGE Publications, 2021-07-20) Greig, Alastair; Wu, Ziping; Sustainable LivestockIn 2020, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) recommended that British consumers reduce their beef, lamb and dairy consumption by 20% for both environmental and health reasons. For a region like Northern Ireland, this presents a significant challenge. Northern Ireland, considered to be performing poorly local economy within the United Kingdom and Ireland, has an export-orientated agri-food sector with an extensive domestic supply chain. This study shows the likely trade-offs required for a small regional economy with a large, established cattle herd to sustainably transition from one agri-food system to another. In so doing, the study uses the most comprehensive agricultural data collections to rebalance Northern Irish input–output tables, to better account for the nature of NI intermediate consumption within an agri-food system. The results show that a large-scale transition from beef, lamb and dairy to fruit and vegetable production would create a more emission efficient agricultural sector. The worst economic effects could be offset within current NI policy parameters, although there would still likely be some economic costs.