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Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

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dc.contributor.author Hubbard, Carmen
dc.contributor.author Davis, John
dc.contributor.author Feng, Siyi
dc.contributor.author Harvey, David
dc.contributor.author Liddon, Anne
dc.contributor.author Moxey, Andrew
dc.contributor.author Ojo, Mercy
dc.contributor.author Patton, Myles
dc.contributor.author Philippidis, George
dc.contributor.author Scott, Charles
dc.contributor.author Shrestha, Shailesh
dc.contributor.author Wallace, Michael
dc.date.accessioned 2021-06-16T14:08:06Z
dc.date.available 2021-06-16T14:08:06Z
dc.date.issued 2018-08-23
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12518/286
dc.identifier.citation Hubbard, C., Davis, J., Feng, S., Harvey, D., Liddon, A., Moxey, A., Ojo, M., Patton, M., Philippidis, G., Scott, C., Shrestha, S. and Wallace, M. (2018) ‘Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?’, EuroChoices, 17(2), pp. 19–26. doi: 10.1111/1746-692x.12199. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1478-0917
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12199
dc.description Publication history: Published online - 23 August 2018. en_US
dc.description.abstract There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post-Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship This research was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through its ‘UK in a Changing Europe’ initiative. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Wiley en_US
dc.rights © 2018 The Authors. EuroChoices published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Agricultural Economics Society and European Association. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. en_US
dc.title Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare? en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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