A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir
Date
2021-06-25
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Public Library of Science
Abstract
For single host pathogens, pathogen genetic data have been transformative for understanding the transmission and control of many diseases, particuarly rapidly evolving RNA
viruses. However garnering similar insights where pathogens are multi-host is more challenging, particularly when the evolution of the pathogen is slower and pathogen sampling
often heavily biased. This is the case for Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of
bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) and for which the Eurasian badger plays an as yet poorly
understood role in transmission and spread. Here we have developed a computational
model that incorporates M. bovis genetic data from cattle only with a highly abstracted
model of an unobserved reservoir. Our research shows that a model in which the reservoir
does not contribute to pathogen diversity, but is a source of infection in spatially localised
areas around each farm, better describes the patterns of outbreaks observed in a population-level sample of a single M. bovis genotype in Northern Ireland over a period of 15
years, compared to models in which either the reservoir has no role, disease spread is spatially extensive, or where they generate considerable diversity on their own. While this reservoir model is not explicitly a model of badgers, its characteristics are consistent with
other data that would suggest a reservoir consisting of infected badgers that contribute
substantially to cattle infection, but could not maintain disease on their own.
Description
Publication history: Accepted - 25 Aprl 2021; Published online - 25 June 2021.
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Citation
O’Hare, A., Balaz, D., Wright, D. M., McCormick, C., McDowell, S., Trewby, H., Skuce, R. A. and Kao, R. R. (2021) ‘A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir’, PLOS Computational Biology. Edited by M. P. Davenport, 17(6), p. e1009005. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009005.