A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir

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dc.contributor.authorO'Hare, Anthony
dc.contributor.authorBalaz, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorWright, David M.
dc.contributor.authorMcCormick, Carl
dc.contributor.authorMcDowell, Stanley W.J.
dc.contributor.authorTrewby, Hannah
dc.contributor.authorSkuce, Robin A.
dc.contributor.authorKao, Rowland r.
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-13T11:27:35Z
dc.date.available2021-08-13T11:27:35Z
dc.date.issued2021-06-25
dc.descriptionPublication history: Accepted - 25 Aprl 2021; Published online - 25 June 2021.en_US
dc.description.abstractFor single host pathogens, pathogen genetic data have been transformative for understanding the transmission and control of many diseases, particuarly rapidly evolving RNA viruses. However garnering similar insights where pathogens are multi-host is more challenging, particularly when the evolution of the pathogen is slower and pathogen sampling often heavily biased. This is the case for Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) and for which the Eurasian badger plays an as yet poorly understood role in transmission and spread. Here we have developed a computational model that incorporates M. bovis genetic data from cattle only with a highly abstracted model of an unobserved reservoir. Our research shows that a model in which the reservoir does not contribute to pathogen diversity, but is a source of infection in spatially localised areas around each farm, better describes the patterns of outbreaks observed in a population-level sample of a single M. bovis genotype in Northern Ireland over a period of 15 years, compared to models in which either the reservoir has no role, disease spread is spatially extensive, or where they generate considerable diversity on their own. While this reservoir model is not explicitly a model of badgers, its characteristics are consistent with other data that would suggest a reservoir consisting of infected badgers that contribute substantially to cattle infection, but could not maintain disease on their own.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was funded by the following research grants: i) Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/L010569/1) was awarded to RRK and funded the work of DB, DMW, TM, CM, SM, RAS (www.bbsrc.ac.uk) ii) Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/L010569/2) was awarded to RRK and funded the work of DB iii) A Wellcome Trust Senior Fellowship (081696/Z/06/Z) was awarded to RRK and funded the work of AOH (www.wellcome.ac.uk) iv) Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/P010598/1) was awarded to RRK and funded his involvement v) Dept of Agriculture environment and Rural Affairs grant DARD0407 was awared to RAS and funded the work of TM, CM, SM (https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk).en_US
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12518/344
dc.identifier.citationO’Hare, A., Balaz, D., Wright, D. M., McCormick, C., McDowell, S., Trewby, H., Skuce, R. A. and Kao, R. R. (2021) ‘A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir’, PLOS Computational Biology. Edited by M. P. Davenport, 17(6), p. e1009005. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009005.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1553-734X
dc.identifier.issn1553-7358
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009005
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_US
dc.rights© 2021 O’Hare et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.en_US
dc.titleA new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoiren_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-04-25
dcterms.dateSubmitted2020-07-27

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