Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

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dc.contributor.authorHubbard, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorDavis, John
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Siyi
dc.contributor.authorHarvey, David
dc.contributor.authorLiddon, Anne
dc.contributor.authorMoxey, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorOjo, Mercy
dc.contributor.authorPatton, Myles
dc.contributor.authorPhilippidis, George
dc.contributor.authorScott, Charles
dc.contributor.authorShrestha, Shailesh
dc.contributor.authorWallace, Michael
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-01T15:02:53Z
dc.date.available2021-07-01T15:02:53Z
dc.date.issued2018-08-23
dc.descriptionPublication history: Published - 23 August 2018.en_US
dc.description.abstractThere is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post-Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through its ‘UK in a Changing Europe’ initiative.en_US
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12518/306
dc.identifier.citationHubbard, C., Davis, J., Feng, S., Harvey, D., Liddon, A., Moxey, A., Ojo, M., Patton, M., Philippidis, G., Scott, C., Shrestha, S. and Wallace, M. (2018) ‘Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?’, EuroChoices, 17(2), pp. 19–26. doi: 10.1111/1746-692x.12199.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1478-0917
dc.identifier.issn1746-692X (electronic)
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12199
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.rights© 2018 The Authors. EuroChoices published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Agricultural Economics Society and European Association. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en_US
dc.titleBrexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?en_US
dc.title.alternativeBrexit : Comment l’agriculture du Royaume-Uni va-t- elle réagir?en_US
dc.title.alternativeBrexit: Wie wird es der Landwirtschaft des Vereinigten Königreichs ergehen?en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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