Market impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease control strategies: a UK case study
Date
2017-09-01
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Frontiers Media
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) poses a serious threat to the agricultural sector due
to its highly contagious nature. Outbreaks of FMD can lead to substantial disruptions
to livestock markets due to loss of production and access to international markets.
In a previously FMD-free country, the use of vaccination to augment control of an FMD
outbreak is increasingly being recognized as an alternative control strategy to direct
slaughtering [stamping-out (SO)]. The choice of control strategy has implications on production,
trade, and hence prices of the sector. Specific choice of eradication strategies
depends on their costs and benefits. Economic impact assessments are often based
on benefit–cost framework, which provide detailed information on the changes in profit
for a farm or budget implications for a government (1). However, this framework cannot
capture price effects caused by changes in production due to culling of animals; access
to international markets; and consumers’ reaction. These three impacts combine to
affect equilibrium within commodity markets (2). This paper provides assessment of sectoral
level impacts of the eradication choices of FMD outbreaks, which are typically not
available from benefit–cost framework, in the context of the UK. The FAPRI-UK model,
a partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector, is utilized to investigate market
outcomes of different control strategies (namely SO and vaccinate-to-die) in the case of
FMD outbreaks. The outputs from the simulations of the EXODIS epidemiological model
(number of animals culled/vaccinated and duration of outbreak) are used as inputs within
the economic model to capture the overall price impact of the animal destruction, export
ban, and consumers’ response.
Description
Publication history: Accepted - 26 July 2017; Published - 01 September 2017.
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Keywords
foot-and-mouth disease, partial equilibrium model, disease control strategy, market impact, economics
Citation
Feng, S., Patton, M. and Davis, J. (2017) ‘Market Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Strategies: A UK Case Study’, Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 4. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2017.00129.