Browsing by Author "Patton, Myles"
Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?(Wiley, 2018-08-23) Hubbard, Carmen; Davis, John; Feng, Siyi; Harvey, David; Liddon, Anne; Moxey, Andrew; Ojo, Mercy; Patton, Myles; Philippidis, George; Scott, Charles; Shrestha, Shailesh; Wallace, MichaelThere is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post-Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.Item Dynamic Relationships among Phosphate Rock, Fertilisers and Agricultural Commodity Markets: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model and Directed Acyclic Graphs(Elsevier, 2021-08-24) Olagunju, Kehinde Oluseyi; Feng, Siyi; Patton, MylesThe finite supply of phosphate rock, as well as rising fertiliser prices, are key topics in the discussion around global food system resilience. Our paper contributes to this discussion by conducting an analysis of the dynamic causal relationships between phosphate rock, fertilisers, and wheat prices to provide insights on how farmers and policymakers might respond to phosphate rock supply shocks for sustainable and resilient food systems. The linkages between 147 monthly price observations spanning from March 2007 to April 2019 were analysed by combining Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG), a recently developed modelling technique, and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings suggest that there are five long-run cointegrating relationships between these three key components of the food supply chain. Price shocks to the phosphate rock market, over a two-year period had a knock-on positive impact on phosphorus fertiliser prices and to a lesser extent on wheat prices. Interestingly, an increase in wheat price had a sizeable impact on both fertiliser and phosphate rock prices, providing empirical evidence that increases in the price of phosphate rock are driven by demand factors, as well as supply factors.Item Market impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease control strategies: a UK case study(Frontiers Media, 2017-09-01) Feng, Siyi; Patton, Myles; Davis, JohnFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) poses a serious threat to the agricultural sector due to its highly contagious nature. Outbreaks of FMD can lead to substantial disruptions to livestock markets due to loss of production and access to international markets. In a previously FMD-free country, the use of vaccination to augment control of an FMD outbreak is increasingly being recognized as an alternative control strategy to direct slaughtering [stamping-out (SO)]. The choice of control strategy has implications on production, trade, and hence prices of the sector. Specific choice of eradication strategies depends on their costs and benefits. Economic impact assessments are often based on benefit–cost framework, which provide detailed information on the changes in profit for a farm or budget implications for a government (1). However, this framework cannot capture price effects caused by changes in production due to culling of animals; access to international markets; and consumers’ reaction. These three impacts combine to affect equilibrium within commodity markets (2). This paper provides assessment of sectoral level impacts of the eradication choices of FMD outbreaks, which are typically not available from benefit–cost framework, in the context of the UK. The FAPRI-UK model, a partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector, is utilized to investigate market outcomes of different control strategies (namely SO and vaccinate-to-die) in the case of FMD outbreaks. The outputs from the simulations of the EXODIS epidemiological model (number of animals culled/vaccinated and duration of outbreak) are used as inputs within the economic model to capture the overall price impact of the animal destruction, export ban, and consumers’ response.