Dynamic Relationships among Phosphate Rock, Fertilisers and Agricultural Commodity Markets: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model and Directed Acyclic Graphs

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dc.contributor.authorOlagunju, Kehinde Oluseyi
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Siyi
dc.contributor.authorPatton, Myles
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-30T11:49:30Z
dc.date.available2021-11-30T11:49:30Z
dc.date.issued2021-08-24
dc.descriptionPublication history: Accepted - 13 August 2021; Published online - 24 August 2021.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe finite supply of phosphate rock, as well as rising fertiliser prices, are key topics in the discussion around global food system resilience. Our paper contributes to this discussion by conducting an analysis of the dynamic causal relationships between phosphate rock, fertilisers, and wheat prices to provide insights on how farmers and policymakers might respond to phosphate rock supply shocks for sustainable and resilient food systems. The linkages between 147 monthly price observations spanning from March 2007 to April 2019 were analysed by combining Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG), a recently developed modelling technique, and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings suggest that there are five long-run cointegrating relationships between these three key components of the food supply chain. Price shocks to the phosphate rock market, over a two-year period had a knock-on positive impact on phosphorus fertiliser prices and to a lesser extent on wheat prices. Interestingly, an increase in wheat price had a sizeable impact on both fertiliser and phosphate rock prices, providing empirical evidence that increases in the price of phosphate rock are driven by demand factors, as well as supply factors.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe study was conducted as part of the RePhoKus project “The role of Phosphorus in the Resilience and Sustainability of the UK food system” funded by the the Global Food Security's ‘Resilience of the UK Food System Programme’ with the UK's Biotechnology and Biological Science Research Council (BBSRC), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and the Scottish Government (Grant No. BB/R005842/1).en_US
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12518/374
dc.identifier.citationOlagunju, K. O., Feng, S. and Patton, M. (2021) ‘Dynamic relationships among phosphate rock, fertilisers and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from a vector error correction model and Directed Acyclic Graphs’, Resources Policy. Elsevier BV. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102301.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0301-4207
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102301
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.rights© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.subjectPhosphate rocken_US
dc.subjectAgricultural commodityen_US
dc.subjectFertilisersen_US
dc.subjectDirected acyclic graphen_US
dc.subjectVECMen_US
dc.titleDynamic Relationships among Phosphate Rock, Fertilisers and Agricultural Commodity Markets: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model and Directed Acyclic Graphsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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